Marigny and the Ecart

[Mellis]

As the wheel has 37 or 38 degree of freedom - this would not work.

But - if correlation of events and the distribution line of the "observation" - The Law Of Series has it own limits with in a time line - then there is correction.

To make it simpel if you have or take the first 100 trails and get singels and series of two isolated in a window of 100 trails - then we would expect for the next 200 trails to get larger series to apper and use a method to capture does - correction.

For beginners i can give you the probability - the math - the method and some statistics - with some simulation software to do your own home work.

But again the wheel has 37 or 38 degree of freedom and same should apply to any kind of distribution as the observation wish is not a law of the series.

Keep this in mind as i post.

O_o

[Mellis]

Here is an simple chart that I did a long time ago with some values that you can use as reference.

The french word for Standard Deviation is Ecart and will be the name I use from now on.

First you have to get the Absolute Ecart when you calculate.

So lets assume you have an sequence with 14 series alternating with two singles present.

Then you take 14 - 2 = 12

Now we want to get the statistical ecart so we continue with...

14 + 2 = 16

Now we take the sqr of 16 = 4

And finally we divide the absolute ecart whit the sqr

12 sqr 4 = 3,00

The Statistical Ecart 3,00

The values is 1 for singles and 1 for series.

RRR BBB RR BBBB RRR BBBBBBB RRRR B RR BBB RRRRRR B RRRR BBBBB RRRRR BBBBB RR = 14 series and two isolated singels.

The variation is many and you can have a team tracking all wheels for the first 100 to find an Ecart at 3.0 or above.

Singels contra series

Series contra singels

Illustration and exampel with series contra singels.

Statistical Ecart 3,00

R

R

R

B

B

R

B

B

B

B

R

R

B

B

B

R

R

B

B

R

R

B

B

R

B

B

R

R

R

R

B

B

R

R

B

B..3,00

R..R

B..B Indication

R..R

R.

R

B

B

R..R

B..B Indication

R..R

R

B..B

R..R Indication

R

B..B

R..R Indication

B..B

B -

R..R

B..B

R..R Tendency

B..B

R..R

B..B

B

R

R

B..B

R..R Indication

B..B

B

The correction does not have to come like above - it is a good exampel - but during the next 200 they will apper - so it is true correction exist - but it is not the same thing as saying you have a winning method.

The corrections comes in waves - the only thing you can no about the future is that they will apper - but you dont know with how long or short strings they will come with.

It can start hovering and as series has the value of 1 and singels has the value of 1 then this is how it looks like.

RRRR B RRRR B RRRR B R BBBB R BBBB = 10101012101

I will show you the variations of targeting small series contra larger series - post like this just to give you a simpel view of Marignys work.

O_o

[Mellis]

1) Series contra singles.

2) Singles contra series.

3) Singles contra series of singles.

4) Series of singles contra singles.

5) Series contra larger series.

This is just some dimension how you can apply math, probability.

Here is the values for small series contra larger series.

Singles has the value of 0

Series of two has the value of 1

Series of three has the value of 0

Series of four has the value of 1

Series of five has the value of 2

Series of six has the value of 3

And so on

Here is an exampel of an statistical ecart of 3.0

........ LOW

........ LOW

HIGH

........ LOW

........ LOW

HIGH

HIGH

........ LOW

........ LOW

........ LOW

........ LOW

........ LOW

........ LOW

HIGH

........ LOW

HIGH

........ LOW

........ LOW

HIGH

........ LOW

HIGH

........ LOW

HIGH

HIGH

HIGH

........ LOW

........ LOW

HIGH

......... LOW

........ LOW

HIGH

HIGH

......... LOW

......... LOW

HIGH

.......... LOW

HIGH

HIGH

......... LOW

HIGH

HIGH

......... LOW

HIGH

HIGH

......... LOW

HIGH

......... LOW

......... LOW

HIGH

HIGH

......... LOW

..........LOW..............14 series of two and two series above

HIGH

......... LOW

HIGH

HIGH

HIGH

HIGH

HIGH

........ LOW

HIGH

HIGH

........ LOW

........ LOW

........ LOW

........ LOW

What is due and what is negative expectation when you capture correction.

Well the strategy is simpel with measuring and following certan rules.

Track a window of 100 trails where with in you have to capture an Ecart at 3.0 or above "contra" next 200 wish is the future where correction appers - but you have to find a method to capture the tendency towards correction.

There is three waves - Ecart getting stronger or hovering or getting weaker.

Some simpel exampels how it looks like.

Exampel with slight correction and low ecart.

Here is an demonstration how the random flow behave where I show how the statistical ecart grow and get all the elements we have talk about above.

Pick an random file from today at random.org.

This is how the law of series will unfold it self.

Singels contra series.

2 x

1 x

2 x

1

1

1

1

2 x

1 x

2 x

1 x

2 x

1 x

2 x

1

1

2 x

1 x Statistical Ecart around 2.5

2

2

2 End

1

2

2

2

2

2 Hovering

1

2

1 Get stronger Ecart

2

2

2

2

2

2

1

2 Hovering

2

2

2

2

2

1

2 Hovering

2

1

2

2

2

2 Hovering

1

1 Indication

2

2

2 Tendency

1

1

2

1

1

1 Hovering

2

1

1

1 Hovering

2

1

1

1 Hovering

2

1

2

1

2 Ecart get sronger and so on...

1

1

The Ecart has to apper with at least 16 events - where on singel and one serie is one event - at it is due if it pass with in a frame above 50 events.

Back to topic

Regarding if some-thing is due or not is useless and just show who have read this topic the wrong way.

This topic is about tendency not to hunt for a serie or singles to end.

It does not matter if you get 100 reds in a row it still has an value of 1 and are one serie.

We could even talk about 100 alternating series and it still does not matter.

Because the only thing that happens with the last one is that the statistical ecart grow.

Well now regarding how to grasp this I will make it clear and it is easy.

Lets assume we have 1000 alternating series and they end with two singles outcomes.

Then it would look like this.

998 series and BBBPPPPP B P

Now here we actually only know that this sequence end with one singles outcome because we don't know what the last one will become.

There is only an end for the statistical ecart to grow at this momentum.

Now lets assume we get one more singles and then we know we have two because the last one we don't know what it will become.

998 series and BBBPPPPP B P B

Now there is an indication that it has not only stop it continues to drop.

Then now we could argue that it can go back to back and grow any more and hit an higher statistical ecart.

Well lets keep on track here and assume we get one singles event again.

Now there is an tendency for an draw-down.

998 series and BBBPPPPP B P B P

This is end, indication and tendency.

With this you will see how the random flow hovering around an low statistical ecart that grow slowly or jump quick in one direction or go back and fourth between two directions or hovering at zero point.

Then there is time when the statistical ecart grow and get very strong in one direction.

Now you know how to measure the random flow with this simple concept.

Next I would will show you some samples with an predefined march that capture an draw-down.

Keep in mind that many can say many things with little to show or illustrate it with.

Distribution with in the distribution - advance - singels contra larger seris of singels - illustration exampel.

When i use numbers 1 and 2 it can apply to any even money bets - as the random flow is based upon noise and 100% pure from random.org.

Post sampel soon as i did not find it now.

O_o

[Mellis]

I add one software below.

Click on it and load numbers, sampels 10.000 or above.

Click on next to get the sequense with 3.0 or above.

Click on spin to see how the flow after 3.0 or above unfold it self with draw-downs.

Get your sampels from random.org - 100% pure random - depending on what you find out with your own statistics.

With this you have the software capture 3.0 with singels contra series.

You will try to capture draw-downs of RR BBB and RRR BB RRR and RRR BBBBB RR BBB and so on.

You will try to capture hovering where the Ecart dont grow stronger any more RRR B RRRR and RRR B BBB R BBBBBBB R BBBB and so on.

Hybrid would be the combination of bouth i mention above.

Have fun.

See attach file.

O_o

[Faustan]

Hi,

thanks for your Thread. Looks very interesting so far.

I got one question:

Why has a series of three the value 0? Any special reason? Don't get me wrong, I don't think you made a mistake. But I wonder.

And do we increase the value for all bigger series only by 1, or are there any special steps somewhere again?

[K. Hornblau]

Hi,

thanks for your Thread. Looks very interesting so far.

I got one question:

Why has a series of three the value 0? Any special reason? Don't get me wrong, I don't think you made a mistake. But I wonder.

And do we increase the value for all bigger series only by 1, or are there any special steps somewhere again?

Tja Faustan, das hatte ich auch schon einmal im Zusammenhang mit Grilleau mitbekommen,

warum würde mich auch mal interessieren.

Die 3er Serie wurde nicht mitgezählt.

Das scheint ein Experte zu sein.

K.H.

[Mellis]

Hello.

First i did some-thing wrong adding the simulation software for every one to use.

Well it is an loop hole ... and i can explain - but first i want to give away simulation software and how to does who find it intressting to get there own statistics and method.

Masse Egale is simpel and the truth behind it is simpel.

To get true flat betting to work - some one has to have an posititve expectation - wish i dont claim you will get with this method.

You have to find a method how to capture the indication or the tendency wish i mention above.

And the attempts of attacks doing so has to overcome the gain of +1 unit.

Raw and simpel would be just attack when there is a fictive +1 of draw-down and follow that flow.

I reacon for does who has the balls can play with large units and limit there way with a humbel fibo.

There is no house edge using this method - as some one would prefer to place a % on zero tax and only play dose tabels wish have an La Partage rule.

Where you only lose half your bet on even money position.

Here is a short exampel over statistics.

Attack attempts = how many attempts to capture +1 flat betting = 7 attempts.

X = End of day.

87/35

920108 +1

920108 +1

920115 +1

920124 +1

920127 +1

920131 +1

920205 +1

920207 +1

920211 +1

920213 +1

920214 +1

920218 .X

920219 .X

920302 +1

920325 -7

920406 +1

920428 +1

920519 -7

920520 +1

920527 +1

920609 +1

920612 +1

920613 +1

920617 +1

920622 +1

920716 +1

920720 +1

920723 +1

920729 +1

920810 .X

920818 +1

920820 +1

920824 +1

920826 +1

920827 +1

920903 +1

920904 +1

920909 .X

920915 +1

920923 +1

920924 +1

920930 +1

921002 +1

921005 +1

921005 +1

921014 +1

921022 +1

921024 +1

921027 +1

921030 +1

921101 +1

921111 +1

921112 +1

921112 +1

921114 +1

921116 +1

921117 +1

921120 -7

921209 +1

921212 +1

921215 +1

921219 +1

921221 +1

921222 +1

930113 +1

930114 +1

930117 -7

930117 +1

930204 +1

930204 +1

930221 +1

930223 +1

930301 +1

930302 +1

930304 +1

930304 .X

930305 +-0

930307 +1

930324 +1

930326 +1

930330 +1

930331 +1

930406 -7

930406 +1

930407 +1

930425 +1

930428 +1

930507 +1

930507 +1

930510 +1

930516 +1

930517 +1

930520 +1

930529 +1

930601 +1

930622 +1

930626 +1

930628 +1

O_o

[Mellis]

As i promisse above.

Singles contra larger series of singles.

Pick an random file from today at random.org.

1 and 2 can stand for Black and Red for roulette or Banker and Player for baccarat

1

1

2

2

2

1

1

2 2

1

1

1

2 2

1 1

2

2

1 1

2

2

2

2

2

1 1

2 2

1

1

2 2

1 1

2 2

1

1

2 2

1 1

2 2

1

1

1

2 2

1

1

2

2

1 1

2

2

2

1 1

2

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

2 2

1

1

1

1

2

2

2

1 1

2

2

1 1

2 2

1

1

1

1

1

2

2

1

1

1

2

2

2

2

1 1

2

2

2

1

1

1

2 2

1 1

2

2

1 1

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

2 2

1

1

2

2

1 1

2 2

1

1

1

1

2

2

1 1

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

2

2

1 1

2

2

2

1

1

2

2

1 1

2

2

2

1 1

2

2

1 1 Ecart 3.15

2

2

1 1

2 2

1

1

1

1

1

2 2

1 1

2 2 Indication

1 1 Tendency

2 2

1 1 6 Singles

1

2 2

1 1

2 2

1 1 4 Singles

1

1

1

2 2

1 1

2 2 3 Singles

2

2

1

1

2

2

1 1

2 2

1 1

2 2 4 Singles

2

1 1

2 2

2

2

2

1

1

1

2 2

1 1

2 2

1 1

2 2 5 Singles

2

1

1

2 2

1 1

2 2 3 Singles

2

1

1

1

2

2

2

2

2

1 1

2 2

1 1

2 2

2

1

1

2

2

1

1

1

2 2

1 1

1

1

1

1

2 2

1 1

1

2 2

1 1

2 2

2

1 1

2 2

1 1

2 2

2

2

1 1

2 2

1 1

2 2

1 1

2 2

1 1

1

2 2

1 1

2 2

2

2

2

1 1

2 2

1 1

1

1

1

2 2

1 1

1

2 2

1 1

2 2

1 1

2 2

1 1

1

1

1

1

1

1

2

1

2

1

O_o

[Mellis]

Just want to mention and i notice that i am not allow to give or post link to simulation software - i did post it but i guess i am not allow to do so.

Take care.

O_o

[Nachtfalke]

.

Just want to mention and i notice that i am not allow to give or post link to simulation software - i did post it but i guess i am not allow to do so.

Take care.

O_o

Hi Mellis,

I'm sorry, but it is not allowed in this forum to publish links,

if they lead to web pages, which just contain a couple of popups with advertising.

We could not find any link leading to the simulation software You talk about.

Nachtfalke

-Administrator-

.

[Faustan]

Moin Nachtfalke,

*lol* auch nicht schlecht. Also heisse Luft oder was meinst du als Admin dazu?

[Mellis]

https://www.bredbandsbolaget.se/portlet-b2-...atrmell/övrigt/

[Nachtfalke]

.

This looks better ...without advertising

Nachtfalke.

.

[€roulette€]

haste mal auf dem link rumgeklickt?

Sollen jetzt alle Fernseher oder handys kaufen?

[Faustan]

Hi,

I've downloaded your Software, will test now what it is.

[Mellis]

You can only download 100 000 a day from random.org - that is 3 x even money bet = 300 000 a day.

You can save the file out put with every Ecart and its particular correction wish give you a gain of +1 - depending on how you would capture one.

Go to random.org and load 1 to 36 and save it with a txt wish you load and click next to get the sofware to find Ecart at least 3.0 or above.

Then spin and see how the Ecart get stronger or start to hovering or get weaker.

What i say above is true - the next 200 will give you many ends"indications"tendencys - have fun.

O_o

[€roulette€]

Hi,

I've downloaded your Software, will test now what it is.

und unter welchem Menüpunkt haste die gefunden?

[Faustan]

Hi,

@Mellis

"Go to random.org and load 1 to 36 and save it "

I know random.org, but I prefer real numbers from real casinos for testing. What's up with the mighty Zero? It's a loss when 'she' hits you, how do you handle 'her' in your System?

@€roulette€

Augen auf im Strassenverkehr Findest bestimmt den Menüpunkt

bearbeitet Juli 22, 2010 von Faustan

[Mellis]

Feel free to do your own observations.

This is just some parts of the knowledge i have regarding this from the material i have - its now my work - it is Margnys work.

First you have to study how the ecart can grow stonger " hovering " and get draw-downs = ends " indications " tendencys ....

when you master a relax way of doing thing in an humber way to ride out and gain +1 - then you can start to think about the house edge.

Masse Egale is simpel and the truth behind it is simpel.

To get true flat betting to work - some one has to have an posititve expectation - wish i dont claim you will get with this method.

You have to find a method how to capture the indication or the tendency wish i mention above.

And the attempts of attacks doing so has to overcome the gain of +1 unit.

Raw and simpel would be just attack when there is a fictive +1 of draw-down and follow that flow.

I reacon for does who has the balls can play with large units and limit there way with a humbel fibo.

There is no house edge using this method - as some one would prefer to place a % on zero tax and only play dose tabels wish have an La Partage rule.

Where you only lose half your bet on even money position.

[Cicero]

Bis jetzt war dies hier ein deutschsprachiges Forum. Meiner Meinung sollte das auch so bleiben.

[€roulette€]

Hi,

@Mellis

"Go to random.org and load 1 to 36 and save it "

I know random.org, but I prefer real numbers from real casinos for testing. What's up with the mighty Zero? It's a loss when 'she' hits you, how do you handle 'her' in your System?

@€roulette€

Augen auf im Strassenverkehr Findest bestimmt den Menüpunkt

Du bist einfach geschüttelt, nicht gerührt!

Wenn Du das noch länger machst, gibt es saure Sahne.

[€roulette€]

Bis jetzt war dies hier ein deutschsprachiges Forum. Meiner Meinung sollte das auch so bleiben.

Angebot und Nachfrage, @cicero

[sachse]

Ja, diese automatischen Übersetzungen.

Ich bin immer noch nicht dahinter gekommen, was das bei Übersetzungen ins Deutsche

fortwährend auftauchende "sterben" im Englischen eigentlich heißen sollte.

sachse

bearbeitet Juli 22, 2010 von sachse

[sachse]

Läuft hier ein Programm De>Engl und zurück?

sachse

Die Fehler sind nicht von mir.

bearbeitet Juli 22, 2010 von sachse

[Faustan]

@Cicero

Mellis ist glaube ich Holländer. Er kann bestimmt deutsch verstehen aber eben nicht gut schreiben. Möchtest du diesen Thread lieber in holländisch lesen? Also ich find english ganz okay. Babelfish kann dir eventl. auch etwas weiterhelfen; google lässt grüssen.

@Mellis

Thanks for your reply. So, I got something to do for weekend*g.

Cicero just complained about speaking engl. in a german forum. I think you are dutch, right? You can read german but can't write it correct for others to understand? Don't get irritated by heckler. It's good you found us, and are willing to share your knowledge with us.

@Sachse

Was meinste? Das was hier geschrieben steht, oder allgemein?